Intel Roadmap News 10/2000 - Part One, Desktop Processors And Chipsets

Intel Roadmap News 10/2000 - Part Two, Intel's Future Mobile and Server/Workstation Products

Tom's Blurb: Why We Don't Trust Rambus - Pointing Out Facts, Turning Rumors Into Reality

Roadmap 2000 Tidbits from AMD and Intel

Intel Roadmap Update June 1999 - Part 3, Desktop Chipset and Mobile CPU Roadmap

Intel Roadmap Update June 1999 - Part 2, Desktop CPU Roadmaps

Intel Roadmap Update June 1999 - Part I, The Highlights

Rambler's Top100 Рейтинг@Mail.ru


HOT! Update Of Intel Roadmap News!
Краткое содержание статьи: Yesterday we published the desktop part of our latest Intel Roadmap News, but new intelligence has come in that's changing the point of view in several highly important regards. The most important and shocking message is this: Pentium 4 and Socket423 will only be a transitional product and soon replaced by 'Northwood' and Socket478!!!

HOT! Update Of Intel Roadmap News!

Редакция THG,  13 октября 2000
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We've received a lot of response to our Intel roadmap article from yesterday. Some people still continue to say I am too critical with Intel, while many others called my projections for Intel as 'too optimistic'. This is again a good sign for me how controversial my articles seem to be seen and I am pleased with that. Unfortunately I have to disappoint those readers who consider myself as overly negative towards Intel, because new intelligence shows that my projections seem to have been too optimistic indeed.

Before I will spill out the newly found details, I'd like to publish an email I received yesterday. Please see it as some kind of small editorial. It is again critical with Intel, but Nils' thoughts are worth being considered well.

Dear Tom,

I read your article on Intel's latest roadmap and the P4. You seem to be very optimistic. I chuckled and occasionally laughed at some of Intel's ideas.

AMD is positioned with the EV6 bus as a processor-interconnect. This design is vastly superior to anything Intel has come up with. EV6 is in the same class as the proprietary designs used by specialty firms that actually make effective systems using arrays of Intel processors. And AMD is walking into the market with a proven, seasoned MP design that should easily outperform another that Intel can offer.

More importantly, AMD is pricing its MP technology at levels that almost anyone can afford, while Intel is aggressively opposing use of its lower cost processors in MP systems. Those Intel marketing people are crazy. So AMD is going to have zero inventory and pre-sell all the Athlons it can make while Intel relies of filling long pipelines and warehouses with parts to move the awesome output its fabs can produce.

Egghead still has surplus IBM Pentium computers at closeout prices - for $150 or less. This is how badly Intel's marketing strategies have affected inventories of older products. Four-year-old computers selling way below cost and failing to sell.

It really doesn't matter what Intel is talking about doing next year. The AMD Athlon/760 and Athlon/760MP combinations are going to win over the market and allow AMD to finance expansion of its fabs quickly. If AMD's capacity was 4 times as great, Intel might find itself as number 2 in sales next year.

Why is the Duron selling poorly? The market is already full of Celeron systems that don't sell well. Duron is far too close to Celeron in its target market image.

I am looking forward to buying a dual Athlon system based on 760MP glue - with an nVidia AGP video card that has good Linux drivers. By January or February of next year, the hardware, the new Linux core, KDE 2.0, and even better nVidia drivers will all be available. It is likely that GIMP and POVRAY will be improved also, giving me a great graphic design program and a fabulous ray-tracing program. Maybe a nice 20-inch monitor will be in the budget range also.

I would never count on Intel to match DDR SDRAM to the i830. Why not? Intel prefers to support only its high-end designs with premium memory subsystems. Consider the Xeon marketing policy as an example. Intel could have kept Slot 1 and improved its Pentium offerings by adding large L3 caches - but that is not a consumer market strategy. Intel wants to price its high end products in a way that makes them look like bargains compared to Sun servers while still making tons of money. So the i850 might use DDR SDRAM but the consumer market i830 will use much slower memory interface design. Offering DDR SDRAM with the i830 might kill sales of Intel's much higher priced 'server market' designs.

This is a sad situation. Intel and Microsoft desperately want streaming media supported adequately to appeal to the consumer market. Slower memory interface designs make it more difficult to deal with the enormous workload that now exists just for decompressing and moving streaming video to the display memory. When mpeg 4 arrives, most existing systems will not be powerful enough to deal with that technology, even for playback. And Intel will be hyping Pentium 4 systems with RDRAM as the solution while people who own AMD Athlon/760 systems with DDR SDRAM enjoy mpeg 4 playback.

Meanwhile, nobody wants to talk at all about Ellison's New Internet

Computer or about the 3 month old installation of those units at the DISD (Dallas Independent School District). Not one word. I believe that the new MSN Companion has more power than Ellison's design - but I can't prove it because the Ellison NIC processor has never been mentioned. Our public libraries are desperately seeking low cost solutions to satisfy their need for simple, low cost units that can be maintained remotely. When I am asked about solutions, I can only say 'wait until next year'.

Thanks for all your work. Do not forecast Intel's decisions based on your own knowledge of technologies. Intel is NOT making decisions on consumer needs or on providing good value to consumers. Intel is playing a game designed to only make maximum profit.

nils dahl

These are harsh words against Intel again, but instead of the people who call me 'anti-Intel biased' without supplying any reasons why Intel's actions should be seen in a better light, Nils Dahl was actually able to explain his point of view, which has indeed got something to it. You will understand that once you've read my new findings about Intel's plans with 'Almador', 'Brookdale', Northwood' and 'Willamette'. They are not looking as good as my write-up from yesterday. Does Intel care about its customer's wishes? You really wonder ...
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